2011-09-08, 04:11 PM
ShinkuDragon Wrote:well great (sarcasm) in two ways, calculator gave me 0.0465... not 0.024, although this brings the question, since i am drawing them all from the same deck, wouldn't the chance change with each card drawn? compared to drawing each card from a different deck? and r would have to be 4?
and i think i know what i did wrong, but am unsure, p should be 1/4 'th right? 1 out of 4 chance to draw a heart?
I think I overcomplicated it with my subtleness (and incorrect assumptions). Yes, your previous calculation was the probability of landing a specific ONE PAIR hand. Since you can have 13 different pairs, the answer you were looking for would be 13*0.04 = 52%+, which is quite a big leap from the true figure (42.25%), but it's not the problem here (if you're wondering, the gap is because of the problem mentioned in the last line).
Secondly, yes, p = 1/4 and q = 3/4, so to speak.
As for the same-deck thing, the problem was constructed with the assumption that you put the card back after drawing, so each draw is independent of the rest.
I don't know why but after a while being exposed to this kind of stuff, I start asking myself "When I flip a coin, does it land on heads via pure randomness?"