2009-02-23, 03:28 PM
Shidoshi Wrote:Jesus, I feel I'm wasting my time on this discussion.
Though for two 60% scrolls to work in a row the chance is 36%, which would be treating both scrolls as a single event, the chances of each one DO NOT AFFECT the other. In other words, the chance for the 100th 60% scroll to work after the 99 before it failed (example) is still 60%. It's like saying that because you flipped heads on a coin three times the next one has more chance to flip tails.
I AM purposely wasting time on this discussion. I need to kill some time right now.
Scrolling is an event. I know many people that choose to use many scrolls at a time rather than just one every few days or something. To me, that becomes a single session, not several sessions occurring one after the other. Doesn't really matter, though.
The point I'm trying to make is nothing complex. It's simply that probability tells us it's continually harder to hit consecutive scrolls. Because of the way scrolls work, their success never changes. That's obvious and has been pointed out enough times.
Baiting serves as a crunch for people who are scared of raw luck. It's helpful in that regard alone. I'm not even disagreeing with your side, which is why I don't understand your misunderstanding.